The Seventh Sense

The Ferris Bueller Super Bowl Ad

You saw it here first.

 

It's Over For Newt

Tomorrow will make it official, but it's curtains for Newt.  Every available bit of polling data shows a strong trend in favor of Mitt Romney in the Florida. Nate Silver’s fairly conservative projections now indicate a 13-point win for Romney.

The inevitable end to Newt's campaign was also spelled out symbolically when he picked up the endorsements of Herman Cain and Sarah Palin.  ' Nuff said.

Not that he's going to go away.  No, sir.  That's not how Newt rolls.  But some aren't sure:

The most amusing meme of the weekend was the spate of stories questioning exactly how angry or crazy Newt actually is, given his predictable promise to stay in the race for months and months. I dunno: he has a long history of saying irresponsible things and then turning to the nearest observer—often one of the “liberal media” people he has just attacked—to ask how well he pulled it off. He easily could vow to plunge the Republican Party to the bottom of hell before giving up—and then the next minute endorse Mitt and head off with Callista for another Mediterranean cruise.

Obviously, the longer Newt stays in nipping at the heels of Romney, the better it is for Obama.  But I suspect this won't happen.  He's gone just after Super Tuesday, if I had to guess.

The Global Warming Hoax

In last night's debate, Santorum accused both Romney and Gingrich of buying into the "global warming hoax".  It's very disturbing that a presidential candidate still cannot buy into clear scientific data.  There is room for debate about the extent of global warming, and possibly even the root cause (although that latter point is almost universally closed as well).  But to say that it doesn't exist?  Crazy.

In 1880, when modern global temperature records began, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels were at 285 parts per million. In 2011, they are were over 390 parts per million. We know this.  We can measure it.  It's not hard.  It's undeniable.

As we’ve spewed greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere at at a faster pace, global temperatures have accelerated upward, particularly since the 1970′s. To illustrate this rise, NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies released this fascinating video earlier this week, showing 131 years of temperature records edited into a 30-second video:

 

Now, to deny global warming, you would necessarily have to take the position that NASA is either (a) making the numbers up or (2) miscalculating the numbers.  That is, NASA is either evil or stupid.

Until global warming deniers are unequovically take one of those two positions, and prove it, they need to shut up so the grown-ups can think and discuss a policy to fix the problem.

Did The Media Treat Bachmann Unfairly Because She's An Insane Woman?

 

Last Night's Debate

I missed it, but from what I gather, Santorum was the one who actually "won" (just like last one I watched), but nobody is going to declare him the victor because he has no chance of winning the nomination.

Apparently, I understand that Romney was more agressive against Newt, and some of Newt's attacks (like his now-expected attack on the media for asking dumb questions) fell flat.  So it was a good night for Romney. This attack from Romney was both brutal and effective:

ROMNEY: I spent 25 years in business. If I had a business executive come to me and say they wanted to spend a few hundred billion dollars to put a colony on the moon, I'd say, "You're fired."

The idea that corporate America wants to go off to the moon and build a colony there, it may be a big idea, but it's not a good idea. And we have seen in politics -- we've seen politicians -- and Newt, you've been part of this -- go from state to state and promise exactly what that state wants to hear. The Speaker comes here to Florida, wants to spend untold amount of money having a colony on the moon. I know it's very exciting on the Space Coast.

In South Carolina, it was a new interstate highway, and dredging the port in Charleston. In New Hampshire, it was burying a power line coming in from Canada and building a new VHA hospital in New Hampshire so that people don't have to go to Boston.

Look, this idea of going state to state and promising what people want to hear, promising billions, hundreds of billions of dollars to make people happy, that's what got us into the trouble we're in now. We've got to say no to this kind of spending.

Newt, as I noted, is already on the decline.  So this is playing out pretty much like I thought it would.  Romney will be the nominee. 

By the way, if you're interested at looking at the general election front, Obama wins in virtually every poll against any GOP candidate:

NATIONAL (NBC/Wall Street Journal): Obama d. Romney (49-43); Obama d. Santorum (53-38); Obama d. Gingrich (55-37); Obama d. Romney and Ron Paul (45-32-18)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama d. Romney (46-43); Obama d. Gingrich (48-41)

FLORIDA (Quinnipiac): Obama tied with Romney (45-45); Obama d. Paul (47-39); Obama d. Santorum (49-40); Obama d. Gingrich (50-39)

FLORIDA (Suffolk Univ): Romney d. Obama (47-42); Obama d. Gingrich (49-40)

MINNESOTA (PPP): Obama d. Romney (51-41); Obama d. Santorum (52-40); Obama d. Paul (51-38); Obama d. Gingrich (53-38)

That's pretty amazing considering that Obama has only just started campaigning.

 

The Hats Of Downton Abbey

There are lots of them.

"Ouch": The Bob Dole Non-Endorsement of Newt Gingrich

I've emboldened my favorite parts.  Here it is: 

I have not been critical of Newt Gingrich but it is now time to take a stand before it is too late.  If Gingrich is the nominee it will have an adverse impact on Republican candidates running for county, state, and federal offices. Hardly anyone who served with Newt in Congress has endorsed him and that fact speaks for itself. He was a one-man-band who rarely took advice. It was his way or the highway.

Gingrich served as Speaker from 1995 to 1999 and had trouble within his own party. Already in 1997 a number of House members wanted to throw him out as Speaker.  But he hung on until after the 1998 elections when the writing was on the wall. His mounting ethics problems caused him to resign in early 1999. I know whereof I speak as I helped establish a line of credit of $150,000 to help Newt pay off the fine for his ethics violations. In the end, he paid the fine with money from other sources.

Gingrich had a new idea every minute and most of them were off the wall.  He loved picking a fight with Bill Clinton because he knew this would get the attention of the press. This and a myriad of other specifics helped to topple Gingrich in 1998.

In my run for the presidency in 1996 the Democrats greeted me with a number of negative TV ads and in every one of them Newt was in the ad.  He was very unpopular and I am not only certain that this did not help me, but that it also cost House seats that year. Newt would show up at the campaign headquarters with an empty ice-bucket in his hand — that was a symbol of some sort for him — and I never did know what he was doing or why he was doing it.

In my opinion if we want to avoid an Obama landslide in November, Republicans should nominate Governor Romney as our standard bearer. He has the requisite experience in the public and private sectors. He would be a president we could have confidence in.

Fun Fact Of The Day

John Tyler was the 10th president of the United States.  He's probably best known for annexing Texas into the United States, back in 1845.

Here's the fun fact: his grandchildren are still alive.